When should I expect a BFP?

It's already 13 DPO and I still haven't gotten a positive pregnancy test. Should I assume I am out for this cycle?

This is one of the most popular questions I get asked - when can I expect a positive pregnancy test? Here are the stats from various sources on the interweb I've found:

HPT accuracy by DPO:
10 dpo : 35%
11 dpo : 51%
12 dpo : 62%
13 dpo : 68%
14 dpo : 74%
15 dpo : 80%
16 dpo : 88%
17 dpo : 92%
18 dpo : 99%

Does that seem lower than you expected? You aren't alone. Why else would we be whipping out our peesticks at 6 DPO? It's because we think a BFP at 6 DPO is possible, and a BFP by 10 DPO is the norm. This expectation has been created by the culture of the online ttc community, and I am certainly guilty for being part of that. Yes, I am a classic peestick pusher. I just gotta know the second it is possible to know. In reality, though, even with sensitive tests a BFP is unlikely until you near your missed period.

Aside from the fact that on message boards, people are more likely to post and make a big deal over an early BFP than a late one -- there is also the human error factor to consider. I don't want to offend any of my beloved citizens of Peestick Paradise, but sometimes those super early BFPs are actually not BFPs at all... they are errors, evaps, or sometimes even just a case of looking to hard and seeing the reagent strip. Then a few days later, they get a real BFP. Of course, they think they got their BFP at 6 DPO... but in reality, they didn't get a real line until 12 DPO.

The above stats are confirmed with other sources of data. Fertility Friend has an excellent page on this. You'll see that according the Fertility Friend's data, the average first BFP is 13.6 DPO, and the average first "false positive" is 10.6 DPO. This tells me that people are testing early, but the average is still close to 14 DPO. This means that a lot of women aren't getting that first BFP until after 14 DPO. So I think the above stats are likely correct.

So this was my long-winded way of saying... don't give up. Don't give up at 13 DPO, or 14 DPO, or even 15 DPO. It ain't over until AF crashes your peestick party.

Does a Short LP Mean I Can Test Earlier?

The test says I can test 5 days before my missed period. I have a 12 day luteal phase and get my period at 13 DPO. Does this mean I can start testing at 8 DPO?

You can start testing anytime you want as far as the Queen is concerned. BUT, it isn't typical to see results before 10 DPO. In fact, most don't see results until 12 DPO. The lenght of your LP has nothing to do with when the peestick tests will be able to pick up a pregnancy. Regardless of your LP, your body needs time to build up enough hcG to trigger a postive test. When a test says it can detect a pregnancy 5 days before a missed period, it is assuming a "typical" cycle with a 14 day LP and AF showing up at 15 DPO. This would make 10 DPO the first 'reasonable' test date for those tests.